Market Ethos

A change in the air

27 October 2026

The market moves through cycles, which we can observe by measuring trends and what types of stocks are starting to outperform. We call this relative strength. Watching it is a bit like watching a wind vane swinging back and forth. Monitoring the movements is important since winds change before the weather does. This month, the vane has swung.

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Tracking the AI buildout

19 October 2026

This isn’t our first bubble. In fact, we have invested through many bubbles from dotcom, energy trading, China (2x), commodities, housing, mobile, fracking, cloud, marijuana, and now AI.  Each was different in its trajectory, speed, size, inflation, and deflation. Some bubbles are big but narrowly focused (dotcom), some are gradual that have systematic ramifications (housing), and some grow and pop with limited economic consequences (marijuana). This AI one is already REALLY BIG and PERVASIVE; so big that its path will likely be the dominant factor in driving equity and bond markets plus the global economy in the coming years.

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